I would like to point out that even though we project future home closing and sales prices, we are not really forecasting. We are merely counting the properties under contract and their reported contract price. We can also track historical patterns, which in turn define seasonal patterns. In 2020 our leading indicators have given accurate insights as to how closing data will appear in the next month or two. On the other hand, our seasonal patterns are in complete disarray. Historically, we would see sales volume and prices peak in May or July, with volume declining for the remainder of the year while prices remain relatively flat. This year it appears our “season” has been pushed back as the market recoups the losses from April and May. Like the first six months of 2020, the second half will not follow traditional norms. In closing, I’d like to point out that although our market is on fire, a hot market does not necessarily mean we have a healthy market, which I will discuss in the next STAT.
Pending Price Index
Last month in STAT, the mathematical model projected a median sales price for June of $300,000. The June reported median was $305,000. Looking ahead to July, the median sales price will increase. The ARMLS Pending Price index is projecting a median sales price of $310,000. Our mathematical model has underestimated the actual median sales price the last two months. Don’t be surprised if the reported median sales price for July once again exceeds our projection.
We begin July with 7,819 pending contracts; 4,857 UCB listings and 733 CCBS giving us a total of 13,409 residential listings practically under contract. This compares to 10,972 of the same type of listings one year ago. At the beginning of July, the “pending” contracts are 22.2% higher than last year. There were 22 business days in July of 2019 and 22 this year. ARMLS reported 9,192 sales in July of 2019. My guess for this July is 10,325.